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Well I believe it is now pretty safe to say we have the fiscal cliff fiasco out of the way, the new year has come. Happy New years to everyone! Washington finally got their act together and cam up with a plan, granted it has not been pasted yet but more than likely it will. I had Tweeted and actually posted on this website (last Friday) about how I would feel most comfortable being cash, long, and finally short going into the start of the week. If you are interested in why I said these things please visit the blog post (Daily Analysis) from last Friday, the link to it is here - http://thebagelshop.weebly.com/3/post/2012/12/yuck-2013-comes-soon-fiscal-cliff-looms-daily-analysis.html - Not so much to brag that I was right when I said that last Friday but moreover, it is a learning opportunity for those that did not exactly know how to view this crisis from a charts POV. I am a sole believer that the charts always tell the story, you didn't have to know that their was a "fiscal cliff" to make money and know how to react come Monday morning.
Now that we have that rant taken care of we can move onto the future. Today we saw a powerful bounce off the lows and closed at the highs with great volume engulfing at least four days. This is all very bullish and in my opinion will likely lead to more upside before we hit major resistance around the 1445 level in $SPX. The longs can celebrate and the shorts should have covered last Friday going into the weekend or at least some Pre market. It is still hard to chase such a candle like this one if you are not already in it so be careful, and MANAGE RISK.
Apple broke out of a downtrend and actually led the market higher for once. This occurred after what people saw as a triple bottom and some slight mirco bullish reversals. Right now you measure the commitment it has and see if it can consolidate or continue, it is hard to chase this candle though as you would have to risk A LOT from a swing trading POV. From a more macro, or long term view however, this would be your buyback time in my opinion There is now very clear support and a powerful move off the lows. The stops for both the long term guy and the short term fellow should be just below 500 - or that is where I would put mine.
Google was not near as strong as Apple today but over the course of the whole month Google would have been a better place to store your money. Going forward I could see Google trading higher (or over Today's highs) as you now have a decent reversal signal and a place to place stops with a clear line. Google is not however my favorite chart pattern and here is why - Did not close at the highs, did not close with AMAZING volume, closed under resistance (the MAs), unlike the index. Still though, Google looks fine and looks like it can build higher. Stops should be at the lows of the day.
Amazon has actually been one of the weaker tech/high beta names lately after the recent sell off which concerned many people. Now however Amazon has bounced but still looks to be one of the weaker ones and here is why - closed under resistance, closed without great volume, MAs are curling down right after price hit highs. For me to really start to like this name more it would have to get over the high of today, it is not a screaming buy right now for me - could still trade higher as it did form a nice potent candle but I do not like the odds COMPARED to some other patterns I am seeing or have seen.
General Motors had yet another explosive day today and quite frankly, I would be taking at LEAST partial profits now as it is ripening for a pullback now that it has traveled so far. This does not mean however it is a short, it is actually still a good long but depending on your timeframe, you may want to take some profits come Wednesday's close. The one thing you should not be doing is buying right here and now, the ship has sailed.
Bank of America has formed another high level base and looks good for the first part of 2013 but keep in mind, you have missed the majority of the move for now, there has been no major correction or any dip under the 8 EMA therefore you must be aware that it will not move as much as it would have down at the 10 now that it is at 11.60ish.
NOTICE: My 2013 predictions/picks will be coming out January 2nd right here on this blog, please, if you would - "share" it with your friends, "tweet" it to followers, and everything else you would like to do to help me out because I spent a lot of time doing this for y'all and I wold like as many people to see it as possible. Thank you.
That's it for now, check back here later for charts with notes going into Wednesday.
Well pace you bets guys; it's that time. The meeting is Sunday night guys with the house and that is basically the last time they have a chance to make a deal. We should not have expected anything more of this, the politicians ALWAYS wait till the last minute - always. In my personal opinion I would feel most comfortable being cash weekend, followed by being long, and then I would feel least comfortable being short. Let me tell you why.
1. Being flat, or cash over the weekend is obviously the smartest choice. This is because NO ONE actually knows how this fiscal cliff deal with resolve, probably not even the fools up in Washington. If you can not control the news, and it is a news driven market -- Do not position.
2. Being long into the fiscal cliff I would feel second most comfortable with, and this is why - We have seen 5 DOWN days now and ANY agreement in Washington will likely send the market higher, quick. Therefore, do not chase the shorts after five down days and probability tells you an up day is coming soon.
3. Being short I would be least comfortable with because of the same reasons I would want to be long, do not chase the shorts -- five down days is not the time to initiate new shorts.
Gun to head; I think shorts are squeezed Monday, but that does not mean a thing; it is just a hunch.
Have a nice weekend, follow me on Twitter if you have not and if you have any questions or comments please visit the contact page.
To say the least; today was wild. We were down so much (over 1%) intraday and then closed down only .13%. You could have made money day trading in this market if you were quick, I do not usually day trade and I said to my self that I would not trade anymore in 2012 because of the fact the fiscal cliff news in dominating the market and I really, really do not like headline driven markets. Going forward, I will continue to be remain cautious. The market did not seem to form that potent of a reversal, we did not see it close green, and we have not seen a massive sell off like we had coming into November 16th. Right now you can trade against the low of the day. Maybe we can see some kinda follow through tomorrow, at least in the morning, but I do not think that we are at a massive support. There will be better times to make a lot more money and therefore, there is no reason to fully invested in this type of choppy market.
Apple helped lead the market off the lows today though it does remain EXTREMELY weak and there is still the "elephant in the room", the huge head and shoulders pattern. If you would like a long TRADE then this could be a time to get in with tight stop at the low of the day because of how broken this stock really is. It still has a lot of resistance over head but is showing SOME signs of a possible short term bottom right now. Remain light.
Google has been a choppy mess and not a trade in there for me, I like a trending tight market and when there is a cluster of dojis with is dripping lower I generally stay away. It is nice to see it hold the 21 EMA and maybe we can build off today as we have came back down to some support. You could just as easily stay away though and not miss a lot.
Amazon fell below some key support yesterday (should have been stopped out) and now traded lower and held the 50 SMA but it is still broken and I do not expect a whole lot out of this name until we start to get back up to the those highs we just saw.
The banks held some key support today and you would like to see it build off the low of today but I remain cautious until we do see some follow through. The banks still look good for at least the first part of 2013.
Overall, stay light or just watch - the new year will hopefully bring more direction to this choppy tape.
Some names I am watching; $CMG $YELP, $FCX $DD $GMCR
If you would like to contact me for questions/comments please visit the contact page at the top of the page.
My 2013 predictions with analysis and targets all come out on the 2nd of January -- BE SURE to come back here to check them out and let your friends know about it also.
Below these charts there are a few more I am looking at as a well as the big name stocks I always follow; enjoy!
I would like to give you an example of how I time the market and look at the charts; below are a couple charts I tweeted throughout the day. No, I did not create the charts after the rally we saw.
My charts w/ notes for tomorrow --
Well to give you guys a little mid day update...
Yesterday I said that we have held where we needed to so far but I remain hesitate and cautious. The VIX is now over 20 (first time since July), the indexes are down about 1%, and the leaders (banks) are leading us down. Yesterday or this morning was a good time to take off some risk for swing trades or day trades and we continue to see uncertainty in this marker. I believe we will see a rally in 2013 but until the chart tells me that I will remain cash (for the most part) and monitor the situation I said a day or two ago I will more than likely not trade any more this year because of Washington and the lack of volume in this market, this is still true.
I do think it is probably too late to short this market today, maybe you could get in short on a bounce to the 50 SMA but we have seen multiple down days in a row and it dangerous to chase after such a move. Another thing to remember is that we have seen a trend in the afternoon hours of where we trade higher and recover some of losses from the morning so you would hate to be caught in that if your were short.
Apple is still very weak and looks like it wants lower, below 500 is very bad for this stock.
Facebook continues lower and looks like it wants to go lower too.
Google is OK, not a buy but not sell if you are a position trader.
SPY is broken. I am looking for a bounce around the 139.24 area if not before but remember it is not a good idea to chase a
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Today we saw the market sell off some more with a little bit more power. I would be remaining cautious through year end, personally, I do not want to trade anymore until 2013; the news dominates the market and quite frankly - We are seeing a weaker market now. The $SPY held where it had to today (the 50 SMA) but the action today did not give me enough conviction to bid into this choppy, mixed tape. If you do choose to trade however, please choose the strongest names out, with the cleanest, strongest charts (this is NOT apple).
Apple saw continued pressure today and I remain bearish. It needs to get back over the micro down trend line (see chart below) to go anywhere. It remains a no trade for me. It has yet to confirm the head and shoulders pattern but it has also yet to confirm any bullish action either. It is trading vehicle, not a investment/swing trade at this point.
Google is holding in there though I remain cautious. It closed relatively strong, compared to the market. What has me hesitating though is the fact that it's fellow high betas are not acting well at all... $AMZN sold off hard today and $AAPL is showing no signs of strength.
Speaking of Amazon, we saw a huge sell off today and it should have stopped out any uncommitted longs. You can always revisit this name but it is better to get out while you can before it goes way south for you. I would watch the 246 level, you should watch out if it falls below that level as that is the level of support from the most recent bull flag.
$BAC saw some crazy action today. It was up a lot with pretty good volume without ANY of the banks following. This could (MAYBE) mean they know something that the public does not. Though by me saying that it does not mean I am a buyer, I focus on the charts and if the charts tell me to buy, I will (currently they do not).
The banks as a whole though continue to be the place to be and therefore when 2013 rolls around and I start to trade again I will most likely be focusing on them. Focus on the leaders, it's as simple as that.
On JANUARY 2nd my 2013 predictions/investments come out, please help me spread the word by clicking tweet on the bottom of this page and come back to see them on that date, thanks!
If you would like to contact me for questions/comments, please visit the contact page for details.
Finally, below are the charts with notes I have done so far. Click on them to make them larger, more are likely to added later --
There is not much I can say about this one, I played it all right and it turned out to be good and true now but I was stopped out a day before the move. I should have had my stop a little looser than it was.. I did not give it enough room for the move I was anticipating It was Christmas eve and the first wick of the day wiped me out. The only thing I can do now is too move on and look to the next one. I wish it hadn't worked out like that but oh well. It did.
If anyone follows charts they would know that this trade could have been a lot better. I did make money and a decent amount but still is not that good. I saw all the banks breaking out and $GS forming a higher low with a tight pattern so I got in; this was all good. I think sold the same day because it fell too much intraday for me to like. It went on to close at the highs of the day and rocketing 8 more points after that in the coming days. I lost out of a potential HUGE winner, but that is ok. Here is what I learned --
Did well -
1. Pattern recognizing.
Could improve on -
1. My swing trading mentality I was using a day trading mentality (from my iPhone, again) on a swing trade. This should have not happened. It is a swing trade and there is no reason to have super tight stops intraday.
Overall, good trade and I am glad I participated.
Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays. Hope you are are having a wonderful time. I doing the Daily Analysis an hour before the market closes today because I am going to a family Christmas party very soon.
The market (as of right now, 12:03) has been a non event. Very tight trading range and not really much today. Non really a win for the bulls or the bears. The QQQ's were a tad stronger today, likely because of Apple being green. I wouldn't think to much of today.. Could have never happened and it wouldn't effect anything. Currently I do think I will be initiating any new positions before 2013 just because there is the risk of the fiscal cliff and we seem to just be stalling and moving sideways. New money comes in in January and then we will likely continue up - I do not think you will miss very much this week. The banks are still you friend and more than likely I will be buying (like $BAC) some of them early January. I do not think it is wise to chase the price the last week of the year. Let the trade come to you. Even if the market does move this week it will be on light volume and will likely move event more once the new year comes around.
Overall, keep your eyes on the banks. They will continue to be your friend in at least the first part of the new year. Keep an eye on Apple as it looks like it could be trying to build a lower base. Needs to get over 555 first though. Amazon continues to perform and will likely take out the all time highs. Facebook has been very well and I suspect it to continue to do well in January/2013.
Have a nice holiday. Remember to come back here on the 2nd of January to see my 2013 predictions with Price Targets! Spread the word!
If you would like to contact me visit the contact page.
I do not usually run into this problem but when I do it really confuses me. I do not know which chart to trust.. Since technical analysis depends so much on the price action and on the chart you need to make sure you have it right. Therefore I bring to you four different pictures of the same stock, but two completely different charts that could potentially alter your view on a trade drastically if you look at one over another. Please let me know your thoughts on why this happens and if I am missing something obvious, thank you. Maybe we need to contact these charting services and tell them what it is happening if it actually is a mistake.
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The first chart is from TC 2000 (the charting service I use, and I think this chart is correct)
The next chart is from StockCharts.com, what happened to that extra leg up? Did price actually trade as high as 8.10ish? According to StockCharts it didn't --
Now here is CNBC's depiction of the stock and the chart, it looks the same as TC 2000, mhmmmm...
Finally we have Trading View (which many people use) showing the same as StockCharts.com....
Now that we have seen all the different charts you can easily tell how looking at one over another can alter your opinion on the security greatly. The question is.. Which one is actually correct?
Thank you for your responses.
intraday price analysis, sitting more in the bullish camp.
First of all, Merry Christmas (or Happy Holidays)! I wish you all a good time on your days off and hope you use this time to take a different perspective on your trading and try to regroup some. Analyze a few of your trades and determine how you did on them and what you could have done better. And, of course, spend some time with your family.
The market last night fell a ton over the failed "Plan B" bill and we open significantly lower than we had closed. This was a huge problem for most traders and I am sure it was very nerve racking too. Personally I did not have a clue what this was going to lead to and therefore I posted a blog this morning going over three different scenarios that could play out. After witnessing the close today I feel confident in saying that it was the first scenario that I listed was/is true. Another scenario I listed talked about the gap down sell off theory, this would have been detrimental for the bull in my opinion. I feel like this is just creating a buying opportunity for the bulls to get some reasonable prices after the prices being so extended. Time will tell though. Going into next week I think we can see a little upside to try to feel the gap with light volume (similar to Thanksgiving week) or we could just see continued sideways action. Though, as hard as this is to gut - there is still the concern and fear of the silly politicians opening their mouths this weekend and into next week that could sway the prices significantly like we saw today. I do believe that we are CLOSER to a deal and that they will likely come up with one but it will be more of a last minute thing (as always) but then again, what do I know? I am just a technician and the only thing I am basing that one is hearsay and theories - all could change come Monday.
The fact that we closed off the lows and trader higher (open vs. close) and we trader higher with massive volume tells me there are still buyer stepping in and buying the dip and thus us closing off the lows like we did - is a win for the bulls in my eyes.
$AAPL - Onto Apple now. I do wonder when I will have to stop covering this stock every day, when will it not be the favorite anymore? When will the dynamics and the biology of this stock change so much that it is purely a trading vehicle in specific time periods (like $CSCO and $MSFT)? The answer to these questions.. I have no way of knowing. I will say it is still in a bearish pattern from a more macro/long term point of view. The bears have managed to push it all the way down to the 500ish level, from 700 with out much of a bounce. The trading and the price has become more and more choppy and less and less like a trend, this concerns me. I generally only focus on the stocks that are trending, one way or another and currently Apple is in a down trend but it so choppy and testy that i consider it more trendless. Currently there are a few signs of life from a more micro point of view (day to day) that I would like to highlight.
- Closed at the highs
- Traded with expanding volume today (compared to the prior two days)
- Formed a higher low today
- Somewhat LED the market today
Saying these TINY positive things is not much though. It still has a lot to prove and these small things are not enough for me to want to buy it right now. Time will tell and I will be patient with Apple. Forget about the name Apple, trade the price.
$GOOG - I still think Google is pretty strong and should be watched but currently I do not think I see a trade in it. It has been a little choppy with a lot of doji closes. I would stay long if you are a long but I will wait for a more clear signal before I want to buy in.
$AMZN - Decent channel action today after gapping down to the 8 EMA. It is at some support but then again, it is similar to Google -- there is not a real clear buyable trade here. It did have some selling volume today and it closed red (unlike Apple) which is not a great sign if you are looking to buy. Therefore, I would say give it some time and wait for a more potent reversal day or a more actionable signal.
The banks held up really well today and should definitely still be watched. Most of them filled the entire gap down and then traded even higher. There could still be some sideways action in the future because of how extended they still are but for the most part, if you are in the banks.. you should feel very comfortable and be very happy. Keep with it and for people that want in on the banks, you could buy now verse the low of the day or wait for a couple more days of basing as a lot of them are still extended to the upside.
The hombuilders are still seeing some strength and buying and I like to see money going back into them. $KBH is the weakest out of the group and should be avoided. $PHM and $XHB look good though and the stop should be at the low of day (Friday) if you own it or want to own it. They saw some nice volume today and will likely continue higher. It is however difficult to chase price in $XHB, be careful.
Those are the main names and thinks you should be watching, I am currently long $DE and $MON. Both look pretty good breakout candidates and both showed relative strength today.
Have a nice holiday and be sure to check back here for charts/analysis over the weekend.
If you would like to contact me for questions/comment please visit the Contact page for details.
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