Good constructive consolidation day today. This is what I like to see when I look for continuation plays. Lower volume inside consolidation days. I think we can head higher but we are still a little extended to the upside. Another day or so of consolidation and we could see another move upwards I think. I got some $K today, I am hoping to turn it into a swing trade - we will see where it goes. I do not like it closed, the volume wasn't great so we we will see. Overall, do not add a whole lot of longs on right now, let's just wait and see if we can consolidate some more before heading higher.
Apple continues to tell it is is weak and needs more time. I think all we can do is respect that and stay away for now and wait for there to be a clear buy signal. I am not buying quite yet, still seems we weak but we are holding higher and could potentially see another move closer to the 200 SMA sometime next week.
Google is very strong right now but is now extended to the upside and needs to take a break. I wold not chase this one right now because of the extended nature of it and the fact it is going to meet resistance at the 700-705 area.
Amazon finally took a small break today, which is really healthy. We need to see things take breaks and hold higher to show if it really is strong. I think it still needs to break some more though because of how much of a run it's had. Do not chase.
(Friendly reminder: click to enlarge the charts)
Now to some stocks that I was asked to cover today --
Netflix - Seems like there is a potential rounding top or inverse cup and handle in play. Both of these things I do not like I would stay away for now. Not a whole lot of conviction or set up right now.
SODA -- This one had an awesome run but it appears to me that we could/should see a break here. I would not chase prices up.
FSLR -- everyone is talking about this one and I think it has the capability of continuing but I would like it to form more of a base up here first and let it show some commitment. It could also come back and test the breakout level.
If you go back and read last night's post I said that I will feel comfortable and be a much "bigger" bull once we have a continuation day off these higher lows. While we continued today, it was with no conviction and right into resistance. Therefore this does not constitute as a follow through day. We also now extended again on the daily time frame and could easily pullback some after forming a doji to close the day. Could be a quick short trade here.
Now to Apple, the one everyone really cares about. We saw a doji today in the weakest high beta stock there is right now. I would not be buying Apple right now. It needs to consolidate some more and give a more comfortable entry. Remember it is the weakest high beta name out there right now, so why not look where the money is actually going? Like $AMZN or $GOOG? I do think we eventually see higher prices though and as for price targets (I was asked today), it is hard to say. All you can really do is measure the levels. No one really knows where it goes, and to guess a specific price (target) where it would turn is silly. Use price targets for exits, right by the resistance and remember - no one knows exactly where we go.
Google was strong again today providing follow through from the past 2 days. I would not buy this long now. You have missed the move. It is time to set up a new level to trade against The worst feeling/idea is to chase price up, get stopped and then watch it go right back up.
Amazon is VERY extended and has not been on my buy list for a long time because of this. You just can't get great entries with stocks like this, the R:R is really not attractive here. Wait for a pullback that will more than likely be buyable.
Finally for IBM, we traded down today and showed continued relative weakness. There really is not alot to be said about this one as it is obvious this is not where the money is and I recommend sticking with the strongest.
Overall, still healthy action. We need more time though. We are now extended again on the indexes and could pullback (as we are trading down about .25% AH now). I will be looking to bid into a pullback because this market still looks healthy and fine but nothing can go straight up.
Well, I made money short today in the morning and did not trade it to the long side in the afternoon (I am not a day trader). I think the bulls really took a stand here and held higher despite all the negative vibes. I think we can eventually head higher out of this basing pattern, I will not add/buy too much until we break the channel out and show some follow through. This could be tomorrow, though I would be surprised it it were just because on some of the leading stocks we still need some time to fully digest the moves from last week,
Now on to Apple - Apple had a nice day and for once, it did not lead the markets. The markets led it. I would call Apple's day as a consolidation day and healthy. We closed green and still hovering inside the channel. As long we we can continue to hold higher like we have been, the future looks bright.
Google had a nice follow through day today from yesterday's bullish engulfing pattern we saw. It had follow through on pretty good volume (expanding) and this one is defintiley one to keep on your watchlist to add to/buy. I would be careful though buying into such a two day move like we saw given the market conditions. It is hard to add on strength when the market is not fully behind the move. Need a uptrend for that.
Amazon still looks extended on the daily chart and I will not buy it until it does not. I think we can easily head higher in Amazon, it just may not be the right time to buy too much because of how many strong days we have had, we could be due a small break. A break/pullback would be healthy for this stock.
Overall, I think we have seen some good action but I would still remain cautious until we see some sort of follow through day. The risk to reward is not in your favor anyway up here -- to close to resistance. I am waiting for conviction and buy able pullback in this small channel to position long into.
As always here are my Twitter/StockTwits handles so you can access the charts I post on most of these stocks I mention here as well as more --
Twitter - https://twitter.com/BenCBanks
StockTwits - http://stocktwits.com/BenCBanks
I stated yesterday in my post that if we could have another day of tight, light volume consolidation we could see another move higher. We did not get that today, and I actually ended up shorting the market at the close. I did this because of these reasons -
1. Expaning red volume
2. Outside day
3. $IWN sold off very swiftly today
4. QQQ's had an outside day
5. We are extended on the daily chart from last Friday and could chop around a little bit before going
I say all this not to convince you to short the market too, I am may very well be wrong. I am more over doing this to show and tell you my reasoning and what I see, this helps me and you. Go forward, I think we can see a little downward pullback action, and if all go according to plan, this pullback could be a buyable one. We need to form a higher low to confirm this though. I drew some key levels on the chart that includes my target (right now) for this short.
Apple had a nice day today despite the market selling off, it didn't have an outside day so that is a plus. Apple also traded on lower volume today, which seems good. Going forward, I would keep an eye on Apple and see if falls below today's lows. Apple is also a little extended on the daily chart after having such a strong week last week.
Google had a nice bullish engulfing day on decent volume. I would like to see Google to break the 8 EMA to have any continued momentum. I would not enter long now, it is at resistance and the volume today wasn't overall impressive.
Amazon formed a doji and slight outside day on lighter volume. Amazon is extremely extended on the daily chart and could pullback a little to get some more buyer interest. The doji represents some indecision on the market going forward. The volume is better sign though, the thing we like about that is that the major reversal usually come on high volume, this is not on high volume.
Going forward, I would still be careful and play only the strongest stocks but we have moved alot and could be due for a little bit of a pullback, which is a healthy action for the bulls. I am short and could be long in a couple days depending on the action. Overall the signs call for a pullback, not a downtrend bear market.
And as always, look on my StockTwits/Twitter (@BenCBanks) for some charts of some of these stocks I mentioned plus more.
StockTwits - http://stocktwits.com/BenCBanks
Twitter - https://twitter.com/BenCBanks
Today was very constructive to see higher prices in the near term future. I have my first target at around 142. Another day of some consolidation and we could easily see higher prices. The QQQs broke out today and did not have an inside day which helps confirm my bullish biased now. For me to buy the indices I would like to see another day of inside day action/consolidation.
Apple looks very nice (I often times post charts of individual stocks on StockTwits so check there for Apple) and I think it the next level is 598,which I think we will easily get to.
Google is a little funny, one of the few high betas that did not go up today - because of this, you should obviously use some caution when buying it, I would not recommend ever buying weak stocks that are still showing weakness. As I always say, there are better options.
Amazon, despite my warning, did REALLY well today and while it seems extended on the daily chart, it is one of (if the best) the best high beta stocks out there. Didn't break the 200 SMA and now is rocketing forward. This is one that is definitley buyable on pullbacks.
Ebay was a nice trade today as it broke out to 52 week highs. Because of such a move in one day, I would not want to buy this tomorrow because it flew through resistance today and the likely hood of there being profit takers is pretty high. I would buy this one on a light volume pullback into the breakout area. I do however think we see higher prices in eBay.
A few other noteable potential trades/strong names --
$BAC has held up well and I will buy with a liberal stop after another day of holding higher. I do believe we see higher prices in this one, and weekly chart looks quite amazing.
$NTE has support around 15.00 so that is your first level, I would look for a potent reversal to buy there though. I also think we go higher in this one. Don't chase today though.
$DELL was/is a nice trade after a nice hamari formed, keep in mind of the chasing rule though.
$BBY had some nice action today and could easily be setting up for a gap fill - I will buy after a close into the gap.
$FB did great again, and as always. One day of consolidation with this name and I will be more than likely a buyer. The bottom may very be in for FaceBook.
$TGT fell from it's pedestal and breakout play today, I would have been stopped out today but that is fine, it is still a strong stock and will more than likely provide us with another entry.
$PCLN - still think we see higher prices in this one. Consolidating well and looking to tackle the 200 SMA.
Remember to look on StockTwits/Twitter for charts -- @BenCBanks
Heck of a day. There was some power behind these moves today. The volume was less, yes, but it was almost as much as Wednesday and today was a half day. I think we consolidate and continue higher. There is no reason to buy now, we are extended. I tried a short intraday and ended up losing but is that is alright, the bulls proved to me that this market is alot stronger than I had thought.
As for Apple we closed near the highs of the day and it would be silly to say we don't go higher from here. I think another day or two of consolidation and we could go again.
Google is not as strong as Apple here so if I had to choose I would pick Apple to trade, not Google. I think again, another day or two of consolidation in the market and this once could also go.
As for the market leaders, $XLF today had another potent move higher and broke the 50 SMA. I think (as I have said so many times before) a day to three days of healthy tight consolidation and this one is a buy.
I came into the day a little bearishly inclined but after such a potent move, I just can't be any longer. I want to see 1 - 3 days of consolidation in the indices and then I will be jumping in long. I think $FB will make a push to fill the gap next week, but I will wait to buy until Tuesday.
If you lost money today (like me), just try to shake it off and learn from it. I know it is tough to overcome but as long as we learn from our mistakes we can/will be successful traders.
The market did really nothing today, VERY light volume because of Thanksgiving being tomorrow, and a very small trading range. I am more bearishly inclined right now because of the weakness I have seen in individual sectors/stocks and the fact we are still in a downtrend. The chart above shows the area I am looking to possibly short the market because that is the trendline that has been tested multiple times during this downtrend. The QQQ's are at the top of this their trendline right now (because they are the weakest index) but I do not feel as comfortable shorting now (today) because of the fact that SPY and DIA is not near the top of the trendline. When they (SPY and DIA) are a tad closer to the top of the trendline I will be all short. If I had to guess, I say we get another flush down, and then we need to reassess from there.
Apple held in there but volume is really nothing. It looks like it can go higher because of how the descending trendline is really far away, I do not think this one is strong yet though. It needs some time.
Same goes for Google except the trendline is a lot closer to the price (compared to AAPL) so, if I were to play Google.. I really wouldn't. There is not much there. I would wait for it to get over the recent downtrend.
The banks ($XLF) want higher. It held in the upper part of it's range today and looks like it wants to continue. I like it. If I had to be in something, I would be in the banks and the homebuilders ($XHB).
I am sorry if this Daily Analysis sounds a bit rushed with a lack of detail.. My family is having their Thanksgiving dinner tonight so I have to go!
Have a HAPPY THANKSGIVING. You should be
We had a nice consolidation day after a potent move up, this is very constructive for higher prices. We like to see tight price action near the top end of a move. I will enter long after another day or two of consolidation, and then enter short near the top of this trendline (see chart). You could try to buy today but I suspect there to be a bit more consolidation.
As for Apple, we had an OK day. The problem I see with it is that it opened high and closed way low. It closed at it's lows unlike what the market did. This shows you it has "relative weakness" still. So, if I owned Apple, I would still be long. If I wanted to enter, I would wait for another day consolidation so that you do not have to worry about the minor outside day.
Same thing with Google, we had a minor outside day again, telling us it is still weak. Just because it is weak does not mean we have to dump it automatically, we just need to keep a close eye on it. It would have been better if it just a small inside consolidation day.
The banks ($XLF) and the homebuilders ($XHB) both held higher today, meaning we could see higher prices in the near term future, this is likely because of the fact they are already leaders and will MOST LIKELY continue.
That's it. Let me know if you have any questions, and I hope you had a profitable day.
WOW! There is not much else you can say after a day like today, today was crazy, I would have never expected such a move. We now closed at the HIGHS, and above the 200 SMA, this tells me the bulls really have control right now. Saying all this, the longs were really paid today, and I congratulate you on your play. I did not play this move because I would have had to risk way too much for me to be comfortable with the trade (that is why I did not take the Apple trade too) and quite frankly, I like to the trending markets, not the choppy indecisive ones. I would not be buying anything, and I definitely would not be shorting such a potent move.
As for Apple, we saw the bounce everyone was talking about. What a move! Same goes for Apple though, it closed right on resistance, and I would not be chasing the price, and I definitely would not be shorting here.
Google also had a powerful day, not as strong as Apple but Apple was more extended that Google was so that is reasonable to expect. Google is still in it though, I like it and is with everything, it is not your best short candidate nor your best long.
As for the banks, they gapped up but then stalled. I wouldn't get too nervous of this but it is something to consider, they are/were the market leaders and when they aren't leading that is not good. Apple (a weak stock) was leading the market.
A final thought:
We had a nice move off the lows. I would take caution though entering longs. As I said Friday, it could have been your day if you could "gut" the risk (I did not think it was worth it) and today you were paid. If you did not enter Friday, do not worry. There will be another chance. The one thing you really have to not let yourself do is to place an "emotional" buy tomorrow because you missed today's move. Do NOT, those have hurt me alot in the past. Going forward I would say that there needs to be some sort of consolidation then a continuation higher, that would be the ideal situation. A couple points of concern I have is that the homebuilders ($XHB) did not have a strong day today compared to the overall market, they had an inverted hammer, this makes me more weary of the market. I say this because the market leaders LEAD, the weak ones DO NOT (Apple for example). Overall, do not buy long now, you missed the move. Watch for a tight consolidation, and buy into that. There is never a time is OK to "chase" the price. Also, you really do not have to trade, I am not. I haven't in over a weak, I just want a more "predictable" market to trade in.
That's it. Hope y'all had a nice day.
The market fell below the 61.8% retracement and then closed well above it. I warned this morning about buying on strength when we were up in pre market instead of down like I would have liked to see. It proved prudent early in the day when all we did was fade the gap again. It felt like just another bear day until around mid day when John Boehnor and Obama met and spoke. This changed the market sentiment, and we ended up closing close to highs. I believe we are at a short term bottom. We have a lot of solid resistance levels to go through if we want to really turn things around. I am not long or short anything right now. I do not feel comfortable with the amount of risk I would have to take to take this one home long. If you own it long, I congratulate you, if you do not -- to me this is not the time to chase, there is some solid resistance right above us and the R:R would not be in your favour right now. There will be another opportunity, don't worry.
As for Apple, I think we are also at a short term bottom. We formed another nice reversal here. But then again, the amount of risk you must take to buy into this one is way to much if you are not already long.
Google probably also formed a short term bottom but it was not as potent as Apple, this is because Google was not nearly over extended as Apple. Google could still be considered the stronger of the two though because it is still above it's 200 SMA.
Banks, same deal with them - fell to a perfect support I mentioned yesterday then rocketed off. I would be careful again buying now though, because you would have to gut a pretty big risk in a not so strong market.
Overall, we look a lot better now. A short term bottom may have been put in place today. As a reminder I would like to say, you do not have to trade, learning when to trade is just as difficult as learning how to trade.